My 2025 F1 predictions
Some bold, some obvious and some delusional.
Thank you for being here. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Idée Fixe, the newsletter for curious minds. I’m Toni Cowan-Brown, a tech and F1 commentator. I’ve spent the past five years on the floor of way too many F1, FE, and WEC team garages, learning about the business, politics, and tech of motorsports. I hope you stick around.
My 2025 F1 predictions
Almost every year I lay out my predictions for F1 for the year to come. Many of them become a reality and some were so bold, I would have been shocked if they did happen. Nevertheless, this made me think I haven’t been bold and crazy enough with my predictions. So when Offball asked for a prediction or two about F1 with an emphasis on being BOLD, the ideas and predictions kept flowing.
Here were the two predictions they kept and shared:
Toni Cowan Brown (Tech, culture, and political commentator)
Netflix will secure exclusive live broadcasting rights to a select number of F1 races. Netflix has now proven post-Christmas game day that it can pull off live events, but more importantly that it can attract a whole new audience and understands the value of integrating entertainment and sports. And…
The Vegas GP will become home to the CES (largest consumer tech conference) of motorsports. It will launch a global tech conference to showcase innovations developed by the sport, covering sustainability, data analytics, the future of fan engagement, and infrastructure setups... positioning itself as a tech thought leader beyond racing.
Here were some of the other F1 predictions I had that weren’t shared:
1. Consolidation of the F1 Calendar (and a few rotations)
One of the predictions I shared with Offball that didn’t make the cut was the consolidation and rotation of the F1 calendar. Just a few days later, F1 announced that it would start rotating races in the near future, as it announced that the iconic SPA-Francorchamps circuit (Belgium - and where my love for F1 all started) agreed to an extension in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2029 and 2031 but is dropped for 2028 and 2030.
Prediction: The calendar will shrink to prioritize quality over quantity, focusing on high-profile, high-revenue locations focusing on fan access and engagement.
Why? While there seems to be a desire to keep growing the calendar, F1 teams and drivers have now all spoken out about how the workload isn't sustainable. Logistical and environmental (and probably financial too) concerns will force F1 to focus on fewer, more impactful races. The addition of more races is only diluting the championship wins. It's also not scaling the sport and adding revenue like F1 might have liked. More isn't always better and I wouldn't be surprised if Monaco becomes a show race.
2. A Non-Automotive Tech Giant Enters F1 as a Constructor
Prediction: Remember when the co-founder of YouTube, Chad Hurley, invested in an F1 team in 2009? It was a failed experiment but he was undoubtedly ahead of his time (see a part of his 2009 interview below). We will see a tech giant like Apple, Google, or Amazon launch or acquire an F1 team focused on integrating cutting-edge technologies into the sport. Although the FIA allows for an additional team or two on the grid this idea hasn’t been welcomed by the existing grid or F1.
Why? As F1 increasingly becomes a platform for showcasing technology, non-automotive companies with deep pockets and an interest in brand visibility will see F1 as a lucrative marketing and innovation platform. After all, Red Bull Racing completely disrupted the space as a fizzy drinks company.
Incredibly, in an interview with Autosport back in 2009, Chad Hurley had this foresight to share: “I see tremendous potential for all sports to integrate more media, more social connections, connect with the fans and build a fan base. And that's exactly what I hope to bring to US F1, bringing my experience and perhaps my opinions of how we could go about that. Obviously video is something I am deeply involved with today, and that is going to be a big part of what we do at US F1. Hopefully we can create compelling content that individuals around the world have an opportunity to view and share, and really feel like they are part of the team.
3. Formula 1 Will Race on the Moon (or Announce It)
Prediction: Okay, this prediction is just plain silly, but I think we could see F1, in collaboration with private aerospace companies, announce some big partnership/sponsorship opportunities.
Why? While this sounds far-fetched, F1’s identity as a technology-driven sport could intersect with the growing ambitions of private space exploration. F1 needs to figure out how it stays at the forefront of technology and innovation, especially as we start to produce less and less (and even ban) ICEs. F1 will start looking more intently at how it remains relevant and elevates its status as the most forward-thinking sport.
4. The First F1 Team Will Be Fully AI-Operated
Prediction: AI already has an incredible presence across F1 (whether you like it or not, AI has been playing key roles across the sports for the past decade) and it shows no signs of slowing down. It’s just a matter of time before we see one F1 team integrate AI so deeply into its operations - from car design, logo placements, livery design, race strategy, and telemetry - that it will become an AI-driven "super team," challenging the notion of human-led racing. We already have the concept of autonomous racing where the cars are ‘designed’ to win vs. driven across the finish line so this idea isn’t too far-fetched.
Why? Advances in machine learning and AI could dramatically change how teams approach strategy and design. A team that relies on AI to make in-race decisions in real-time could disrupt the competitive balance of the sport, prompting a debate about what constitutes "fair play."
Beyond the headlines
🔗 Lewis Hamilton x Ferrari - Day 1 | Culture of Sport
None of us could have predicted the Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari move but it’s clear this is a partnership we didn’t know we needed - and the sport certainly needed. And Ferrari (and their sponsors) is certainly already reaping some benefits. Read here.
🔗 Why Saudi Arabia is building a $1 Trillion City in the Desert | Johnny Harris
I’ve said it for years: Formula 1 wouldn’t survive today without Saudi Arabia’s massive investment at both the sport and team levels. One sponsor that stands out as an example of this is Neom, the title sponsor of the Neom McLaren Formula E team. Neom is a $1 trillion futuristic city in the desert, part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to diversify its economy and become a global hub for innovation and tourism. Independent journalist Johnny Harris recently tackled the question I’ve had for years: Why is Saudi Arabia building this city?
🔗 Movie stars will visit Saudi Arabia, will they work there? | Bloomberg newsletter
On the topic of Saudi Arabia’s push to diversify its economy, it’s worth noting its efforts to attract Hollywood stars to visit and engage in its entertainment sector as part of Vision 2030. While these short-term visits are becoming more common, the challenge of securing long-term commitments persists due to concerns over creative freedom, human rights, and regional instability. Read here.
🔗 THE SUBSTANCE | Making-Of Featurette | MUBI
One of my friends described the Substance as “something you’ve never seen before and will probably never see again”, and I think she’s spot on. This short Behind The Scenes documentary explains why this movie feels like nothing you’ve ever seen before. And in an era of technology and AI, it was refreshing to see so many ‘hands on’ effects.
ps: Also realised that in an interview last year I mentioned that we would shortly see an F1 team launch their own creator collective (and about time) and Aston Martin just announced their first creator collective so congrats to them for being the first team to do so (and unsurprisingly so).