When the Winning Formula Breaks
Red Bull Reloaded
Thank you for being here. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Idée Fixe, the newsletter for curious minds. I’m Toni Cowan-Brown, a tech and F1 commentator. I’ve spent the past five years on the floor of way too many F1, FE, and WEC team garages, learning about the business, politics, and tech of motorsports. I hope you’ll stick around.
⏳ Reading time: 8min
Yesterday morning’s shock announcement sent ripples through the paddock: after 20 years at the helm, Christian Horner has been removed (effective immediately) from his roles as Team Principal and CEO of Red Bull Racing. Red Bull swaps its wartime CEO for a peacetime planner, forcing the champions to rethink their playbook, and can Mekies steer Verstappen back to the top? Does he even want to stay?
In this ‘special’ edition of Idée Fixe, we’ll unpack what happened, how we got here, why the timing makes sense (even if it doesn’t feel that way), and what this leadership shake-up could mean for Max Verstappen and the team’s future. I’m going to keep the editorial format as simple as possible and hopefully give you the facts, some talking points and a few personal takes and opinions. I wanted to wait a little till the dust had settled before putting this out in the world.
I spoke to Front Office Sports yesterday to speak about Horner’s shock exit and how/why Apple is looking into the F1 broadcast rights (watch the segment below).
What we know (so far) about Christian Horner’s Red Bull exit
Immediate departure: Horner was informed on Tuesday evening and delivered an emotional farewell to staff on Wednesday morning, reportedly with no formal explanation given.
Senior exits alongside him: Group CMO/CCO Oliver Hughes and Group Director of Communications Paul Smith have also been relieved of their duties. In a scenario where you want to control the company’s messaging and avoid any ‘natural’ bias towards the outgoing CEO, it’s often best to bring in new communications and marketing leadership.
Successor named: Laurent Mekies will take on the CEO role at Red Bull Racing; Alan Permane moves up to replace Mekies as Team Principal of the sister/junior “Racing Bulls” outfit. What’s interesting to note here, is that there was no explicit mention of ‘Tem Principal’ duties, rather Mekies will step in as CEO and take over Horner’s duties, which did include those of team principal at Red Bull Racing. I think this is an aspect to pay close attention to.
So how did we get here
Most impressive is that this has been a 20-year reign for Horner which is no small feat. Horner joined Jaguar Racing ahead of the 2005 season, immediately overseeing its rebirth as Red Bull Racing. He guided the team through two dynastic eras: Vettel’s four straight championships (2010–13) and Verstappen’s run of titles from 2021–24.
However, in the past 18 months, the team - and specifically Horner - have been plagued with controversies and churn
Off-track scandal: In 2024, Horner faced allegations of inappropriate behaviour; after internal and external investigations, he was cleared, but the episode left scars in the garage. The fans have rightly been vocal about the fact that he remained in the job after all the evidence came to light, which for a sport (and a team principal) that has been celebrating the new young and female fandom in the sport, this doesn’t sit right.
Key departures: Legendary designer Adrian Newey jumped to Aston Martin and Sporting Director Jonathan Wheatley left for Sauber, depriving Horner of seasoned lieutenants.
Internal friction: Leaks of tension between Horner and the Verstappen camp surfaced, eroding the unity that had powered Red Bull’s success. One must never forget, and at times it felt like Horner might have forgotten, that Formula 1 is a team sport and success is only guaranteed when all the elements fall into place and work together.
Vulnerability breeds change: In professional sport - and especially in F1 - no leader can afford to appear exposed. Horner’s mix of off-track distractions and declining on-track dominance left him open to the axe.
Why now, which is the million-dollar question on all our minds
In situations like this one, the question of timing is always far more important than we think. There seems to be two ‘thinking camps’ on the question of timing: This is a last effort to try and keep Max Verstappen at Red Bull (1), or Max has already decided he’s leaving and this means that Horner is vulnerable and his time is up (2).
It’s also worth noting that, as much as his personal scandals were most likely a contributing factor, this is clearly not the reason he got shown the door - or that would have happened a year ago. Rather, this merely highlights how data-driven and results-oriented Formula 1 is. In F1, data masks many flaws - until it doesn’t. Once performance dips, the political protection afforded by past victories evaporates. As we like to say in this sport, the stopwatch never lies.
A few other things to keep in mind:
A results-driven sport: At the halfway point of the season, Red Bull sits only fourth in the Constructors’ standings, behind by McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes.
Verstappen’s title defence in absolute jeopardy: The four-time champion is third in the Drivers’ standings with 165 points, 69 behind new points leader Oscar Piastri.
Mid-season timing: Making the switch just ahead of the summer shutdown gives the new leadership team a window to reset, the summer shutdown is notorious for its silly season behaviour. However, pulling the trigger just ahead of the Spa GP is interetsing and highlights how much this feels like a scramble, more than a well-thought-out plan. Which begs the question: what happened in the past week?
Now what and what’s next
In tech, we talk about the concept of wartime vs. Peacetime CEOs. A wartime CEO is characterised by decisive, action-oriented leadership during crises, prioritising survival and strategic manoeuvres. Conversely, a peacetime CEO focuses on long-term growth, culture building, and market expansion in stable, prosperous times.
These contrasting leadership modes map neatly onto Red Bull’s shift in fortunes:
Horner’s era was decidedly wartime: he juggled two distinct title runs and steered the outfit through innumerable battles, always with a laser on the next race.
Mekies’ challenge will be more peacetime-oriented: stabilising a fractious organisation, rebuilding trust in the garage and crafting a sustainable path back to the top. Although he might need to enter as a wartime CEO, he’ll quickly need to help the team move past this and move on to focus on long-term growth, market expansion, and building a strong organisational culture.
What does this mean for four-time Champion, Max Verstappen
The second million-dollar question is now what of Verstappen? Does he stay? Does he go? Does he even want to stay in F1 or will he pull a Sunny Hayes on us?
Contract leverage: Verstappen’s deal runs to 2028 but as the Financial Times put it, performance clauses could be triggered by a continuing slump - Mercedes remains a tempting landing spot.
Restoring confidence: The Dutchman thrived under Horner’s combative style; Mekies must quickly prove he can match that intensity in crisis and cultivate a positive environment for his star driver. Who knows, Verstappen might appreciate this more ‘peacetime’ approach.
Team unity: Success in F1 demands cohesion from pit wall to power unit. Mekies’ dual background in race direction (as deputy race director at the FIA) and team management positions him to bridge operational gaps - but only if he nails the cultural reset.
As one of the sport’s longest-serving leaders departs, Red Bull Racing stands at a crossroads. Can Laurent Mekies transition the squad from wartime firefighting to a peacetime blueprint for sustained excellence? And will Max Verstappen stay on board long enough to find out? Keep an eye on Spa; the reshuffled hierarchy’s first real test comes under Belgian skies on July 27. And I’ll be on-site, so you can expect my eyes and ears to be picking up on everything I can.
What are your thoughts on what appears to have been an internal conflict within the organisation since the death of Mateschitz and how this might have destabilised the Racing Team? I have heard that since his death there had been many leaks to the Dutch media where before there were no leaks anywhere. Also if the coercive behaviour allegations go to an employment tribunal would that be against the Red Bull organisation or Christian Horner?
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful take on this, Toni. (The fact that one will not be held accountable until or unless it is convenient is a depressing truth we are all too well aware of; glad to see it acknowledged here)